Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Sergio Moraes
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
27
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ferreira: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Moraes: 38 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Sergio Moraes
37
Sig strikes landed
40
77
Sig strikes attempted
67
50
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30