Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Mike Russow
66%
34%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
35
Age
Δ 1y
36
25-9-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-3
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Werdum: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Russow: 3 sig / 0 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Mike Russow
32
Sig strikes landed
37
52
Sig strikes attempted
71
47
Total strikes landed
65
0.6
Takedowns landed
4.5
0.1
Takedowns attempted
8.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
30s
Control time
256s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W3
Mike Russow
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—