Back to UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Roland Delorme vs Francisco Rivera

UFC 149: Faber vs Barao ·Scotiabank Saddledome

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Roland Delorme
Francisco Rivera
66% 34%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
10-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Delorme: 16 sig / 0 TD · Rivera: 52 sig / 0 TD
Roland Delorme
Francisco Rivera
38
Sig strikes landed
29
88
Sig strikes attempted
70
51
Total strikes landed
30
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Roland Delorme

10-5 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
Blue corner
W1

Francisco Rivera

"Cisco"
12-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…