Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chris Clements
Matthew Riddle
44%
56%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
13-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
9-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Clements: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Riddle: 28 sig / 5 TD
Chris Clements
Matthew Riddle
43
Sig strikes landed
48
85
Sig strikes attempted
131
53
Total strikes landed
62
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
66s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Clements
"The Menace"
13-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
9-3
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—