Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Ebersole
James Head
95%
5%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
32
Age
Δ 3y
28
52-18-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-4
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ebersole: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Head: 37 sig / 1 TD
Brian Ebersole
James Head
29
Sig strikes landed
16
51
Sig strikes attempted
36
50
Total strikes landed
30
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
9.0
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
209s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
52-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
W1
James Head
10-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—