Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Cody McKenzie
68%
32%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
25
18-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mendes: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
McKenzie: 1 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Cody McKenzie
33
Sig strikes landed
23
71
Sig strikes attempted
69
52
Total strikes landed
41
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.6
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
206s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chad Mendes
"Money"
18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W1
Cody McKenzie
17-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—