Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dong Hyun Kim
Demian Maia
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
23-4-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
28-12
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kim: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Maia: 1 sig / 1 TD
Dong Hyun Kim
Demian Maia
34
Sig strikes landed
20
75
Sig strikes attempted
61
60
Total strikes landed
43
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.3
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
223s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dong Hyun Kim
"Stun Gun"
23-4-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Demian Maia
28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—