Back to UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
Prelims1 Lightweight

John Alessio vs Shane Roller

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
John Alessio
Shane Roller
82% 18%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
33
Age
33
35-18
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-8
L1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alessio: 35 sig / 0 TD · Roller: 31 sig / 3 TD
John Alessio
Shane Roller
40
Sig strikes landed
34
79
Sig strikes attempted
92
65
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
79s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

John Alessio

"The Natural"
35-18 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L3

Shane Roller

11-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—