Back to UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
Prelims2 Lightweight

Rafaello Oliveira vs Yoislandy Izquierdo

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Rafaello Oliveira
Yoislandy Izquierdo
63% 37%
Why
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
17-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-5
L3
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oliveira: 29 sig / 4 TD · Izquierdo: 27 sig / 0 TD
Rafaello Oliveira
Yoislandy Izquierdo
27
Sig strikes landed
36
59
Sig strikes attempted
71
61
Total strikes landed
51
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
290s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Rafaello Oliveira

"Tractor"
17-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
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L UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
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L UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
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W UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
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Blue corner
L1

Yoislandy Izquierdo

"Cuba"
10-5
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
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