Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hatsu Hioki
Ricardo Lamas
75%
25%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
30-10-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-8
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hioki: 17 sig / 4 TD ·
Lamas: 36 sig / 0 TD
Hatsu Hioki
Ricardo Lamas
26
Sig strikes landed
19
54
Sig strikes attempted
44
49
Total strikes landed
40
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
133s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Hatsu Hioki
30-10-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—