Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Cub Swanson
25%
75%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
21-16
Career record
Δ 13 pp
32-14
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pearson: 38 sig / 3 TD ·
Swanson: 45 sig / 0 TD
Ross Pearson
Cub Swanson
43
Sig strikes landed
44
111
Sig strikes attempted
114
57
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
109s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W1
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—