Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Miller
Ricardo Funch
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
14-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
9-7
L2
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Miller: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Funch: 72 sig / 2 TD
Dan Miller
Ricardo Funch
31
Sig strikes landed
25
64
Sig strikes attempted
65
55
Total strikes landed
35
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dan Miller
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L2
Ricardo Funch
"Golden Boy"
9-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—