Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ken Stone
Dustin Pague
60%
40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
12-4
Career record
Δ 21 pp
13-11
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Stone: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Pague: 41 sig / 0 TD
Ken Stone
Dustin Pague
18
Sig strikes landed
17
34
Sig strikes attempted
39
38
Total strikes landed
35
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ken Stone
12-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Dustin Pague
"The Disciple"
13-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—