Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nick Catone
Chris Camozzi
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
11-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-13
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Catone: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Camozzi: 34 sig / 0 TD
Nick Catone
Chris Camozzi
29
Sig strikes landed
39
70
Sig strikes attempted
82
52
Total strikes landed
58
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
214s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nick Catone
"The Jersey Devil"
11-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Camozzi
25-13
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—