Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rick Story
Brock Jardine
65%
35%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
L2
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Story: 51 sig / 5 TD ·
Jardine: 18 sig / 0 TD
Rick Story
Brock Jardine
48
Sig strikes landed
40
108
Sig strikes attempted
91
72
Total strikes landed
52
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
243s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rick Story
"The Horror"
19-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
Brock Jardine
"The Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27