Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Ebersole
TJ Waldburger
92%
8%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
32
Age
Δ 7y
24
52-18-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-9
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ebersole: 39 sig / 2 TD ·
Waldburger: 18 sig / 1 TD
Brian Ebersole
TJ Waldburger
13
Sig strikes landed
9
23
Sig strikes attempted
19
45
Total strikes landed
25
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
240s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
52-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
W2
TJ Waldburger
17-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—