Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sam Stout
Spencer Fisher
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
20-13-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-10
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stout: 64 sig / 4 TD ·
Fisher: 65 sig / 0 TD
Sam Stout
Spencer Fisher
57
Sig strikes landed
54
157
Sig strikes attempted
128
77
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
67s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
20-13-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L2
Spencer Fisher
"The King"
24-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—