Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
Clay Guida
27%
73%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
13-8-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
38-23
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Maynard: 49 sig / 1 TD ·
Guida: 45 sig / 0 TD
Gray Maynard
Clay Guida
23
Sig strikes landed
30
78
Sig strikes attempted
93
39
Total strikes landed
53
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
7.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
39s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gray Maynard
13-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
D
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—