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Michael Chiesa vs Al Iaquinta

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Al Iaquinta
74% 26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
24
Age
Δ 1y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chiesa: 9 sig / 1 TD · Iaquinta: 8 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Al Iaquinta
39
Sig strikes landed
31
82
Sig strikes attempted
62
52
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner

Al Iaquinta

"Raging"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25