Main
Welterweight
Jake Ellenberger vs Martin Kampmann
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Martin Kampmann
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
32-15
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-7
W6
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ellenberger: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Kampmann: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Martin Kampmann
34
Sig strikes landed
28
84
Sig strikes attempted
84
46
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
80s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
Blue corner
W2
Martin Kampmann
"The Hitman"
21-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—