Main
Featherweight
Jonathan Brookins vs Charles Oliveira
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jonathan Brookins
Charles Oliveira
15%
85%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
27
Age
Δ 4y
23
17-10
Career record
Δ 15 pp
38-11
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Brookins: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Oliveira: 42 sig / 1 TD
Jonathan Brookins
Charles Oliveira
16
Sig strikes landed
22
39
Sig strikes attempted
41
36
Total strikes landed
35
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
219s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
76%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jonathan Brookins
17-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—