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Cristiano Marcello vs Sam Sicilia

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Cristiano Marcello
Sam Sicilia
47% 53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
67"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Marcello: 39 sig / 0 TD · Sicilia: 33 sig / 0 TD
Cristiano Marcello
Sam Sicilia
37
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
76
49
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Cristiano Marcello

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner

Sam Sicilia

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26