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Joe Proctor vs Jeremy Larsen

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joe Proctor
Jeremy Larsen
67% 33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Proctor: 10 sig / 0 TD · Larsen: 13 sig / 0 TD
Joe Proctor
Jeremy Larsen
38
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Joe Proctor

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Jeremy Larsen

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28