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Daron Cruickshank vs Chris Tickle

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Daron Cruickshank
Chris Tickle
91% 9%
Why
27
Age
Δ 3y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cruickshank: 17 sig / 4 TD · Tickle: 16 sig / 1 TD
Daron Cruickshank
Chris Tickle
46
Sig strikes landed
40
112
Sig strikes attempted
106
63
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Daron Cruickshank

"Detroit Superstar"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
Blue corner

Chris Tickle

"BadBoy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
30