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Justin Lawrence vs John Cofer

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Justin Lawrence
John Cofer
71% 29%
Why
22
Age
Δ 6y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lawrence: 54 sig / 1 TD · Cofer: 36 sig / 2 TD
Justin Lawrence
John Cofer
36
Sig strikes landed
35
74
Sig strikes attempted
69
53
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
152s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Justin Lawrence

"The American Kidd"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner

John Cofer

"The Potter"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28