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Max Holloway vs Pat Schilling

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Pat Schilling
88% 12%
Why
20
Age
Δ 3y
24
27-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
5-3
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holloway: 118 sig / 0 TD · Schilling: 27 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Pat Schilling
34
Sig strikes landed
25
62
Sig strikes attempted
40
63
Total strikes landed
38
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Max Holloway

"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
L1

Pat Schilling

"Thrilling"
5-3
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—