Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Henry Martinez
Bernardo Magalhaes
51%
49%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
9-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Martinez: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Magalhaes: 26 sig / 0 TD
Henry Martinez
Bernardo Magalhaes
43
Sig strikes landed
50
118
Sig strikes attempted
114
53
Total strikes landed
66
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Henry Martinez
"Sicario"
9-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
L1
Bernardo Magalhaes
"Trekko"
13-5
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—