Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Buddy Roberts
Caio Magalhaes
54%
46%
Why
30
Age
Δ 5y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Roberts: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Magalhaes: 22 sig / 2 TD
Buddy Roberts
Caio Magalhaes
37
Sig strikes landed
36
75
Sig strikes attempted
74
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Buddy Roberts
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Caio Magalhaes
"Hellboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25