Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jake Hecht
Sean Pierson
62%
38%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
11-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hecht: 37 sig / 3 TD ·
Pierson: 41 sig / 1 TD
Jake Hecht
Sean Pierson
39
Sig strikes landed
27
86
Sig strikes attempted
69
50
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
122s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Hecht
"Hitman"
11-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
Blue corner
L2
Sean Pierson
"The Punisher"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—