Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Pierce
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
70%
30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
17-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pierce: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
Rocha: 17 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pierce
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
37
Sig strikes landed
26
75
Sig strikes attempted
66
62
Total strikes landed
43
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
251s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Pierce
17-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
"Ta Danado"
9-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—