Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Seth Baczynski
Lance Benoist
49%
51%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
21-14
Career record
Δ 20 pp
8-2
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Baczynski: 25 sig / 1 TD ·
Benoist: 35 sig / 3 TD
Seth Baczynski
Lance Benoist
29
Sig strikes landed
29
57
Sig strikes attempted
52
49
Total strikes landed
41
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
197s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
21-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
W1
Lance Benoist
8-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—