Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eddie Wineland
Scott Jorgensen
67%
33%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-17-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-13
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Wineland: 61 sig / 1 TD ·
Jorgensen: 48 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Wineland
Scott Jorgensen
36
Sig strikes landed
35
87
Sig strikes attempted
101
47
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
105s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Eddie Wineland
24-17-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
15-13
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—