Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Leonard Garcia
Matt Grice
46%
54%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
18-14-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-6
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Grice: 61 sig / 4 TD
Leonard Garcia
Matt Grice
43
Sig strikes landed
52
125
Sig strikes attempted
143
63
Total strikes landed
59
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.70
33s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Leonard Garcia
"Bad Boy"
18-14-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Grice
"The Real One"
15-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—