Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Pague
Jared Papazian
37%
63%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 8"
67"
25
Age
Δ 0y
24
12-12
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-14
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pague: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Papazian: 7 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Pague
Jared Papazian
48
Sig strikes landed
41
129
Sig strikes attempted
105
49
Total strikes landed
77
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
229s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Pague
"The Disciple"
12-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jared Papazian
"The Jackhammer"
20-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—