Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Justin Salas
81%
19%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
34-17-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
13-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Means: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Salas: 5 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Justin Salas
61
Sig strikes landed
55
140
Sig strikes attempted
138
73
Total strikes landed
78
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.6
Takedowns attempted
7.8
0.20
Knockdowns
-0.10
60s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Salas
"J-Bomb"
13-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—