Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Pyle
Josh Neer
31%
69%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
37-16-1
W1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pyle: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Neer: 19 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pyle
Josh Neer
30
Sig strikes landed
37
82
Sig strikes attempted
73
41
Total strikes landed
46
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
115s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W2
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
37-16-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—