Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Erick Silva
Charlie Brenneman
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
19-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-8
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Silva: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Brenneman: 3 sig / 1 TD
Erick Silva
Charlie Brenneman
20
Sig strikes landed
16
35
Sig strikes attempted
25
34
Total strikes landed
41
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
225s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Erick Silva
19-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
W1
Charlie Brenneman
"The Spaniard"
20-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—