Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Ian McCall
89%
11%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
27-3-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
13-5-2
D1
Current streak
D1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 90 sig / 2 TD ·
McCall: 57 sig / 1 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Ian McCall
42
Sig strikes landed
28
97
Sig strikes attempted
75
73
Total strikes landed
47
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
295s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
27-3-2
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
D1
Ian McCall
"Uncle Creepy"
13-5-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—