Lightweight
Gesias Cavalcante vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg
Strikeforce - Barnett vs Cormier
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gesias Cavalcante
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
68%
32%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
22-10-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cavalcante: 83 sig / 2 TD ·
Vallie-Flagg: 133 sig / 0 TD
Gesias Cavalcante
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
27
Sig strikes landed
29
69
Sig strikes attempted
61
51
Total strikes landed
44
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
230s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gesias Cavalcante
"JZ"
22-10-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
17-7-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—