Lightweight
Gilbert Melendez vs Josh Thomson
Strikeforce - Barnett vs Cormier
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gilbert Melendez
Josh Thomson
68%
32%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
23-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-9
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Melendez: 77 sig / 5 TD ·
Thomson: 64 sig / 2 TD
Gilbert Melendez
Josh Thomson
38
Sig strikes landed
40
113
Sig strikes attempted
107
64
Total strikes landed
54
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
7.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
173s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
23-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masv…
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
W
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
W3
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
23-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—