Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Lavar Johnson
88%
12%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 2"
82"
24
Age
Δ 11y
35
34-13
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-10
W2
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Struve: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 4 sig / 0 TD
Stefan Struve
Lavar Johnson
28
Sig strikes landed
27
81
Sig strikes attempted
49
38
Total strikes landed
38
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W2
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
19-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—