Main
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic vs Shane del Rosario
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Shane del Rosario
70%
30%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Miocic: 32 sig / 2 TD ·
del Rosario: 32 sig / 0 TD
Stipe Miocic
Shane del Rosario
39
Sig strikes landed
26
74
Sig strikes attempted
61
59
Total strikes landed
35
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
192s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
Shane del Rosario
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29