Prelims1
Featherweight
Diego Brandao vs Darren Elkins
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Diego Brandao
Darren Elkins
47%
53%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 7"
71"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
23-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
30-12
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brandao: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Elkins: 36 sig / 1 TD
Diego Brandao
Darren Elkins
24
Sig strikes landed
23
81
Sig strikes attempted
69
34
Total strikes landed
43
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
59s
Control time
190s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Diego Brandao
"DB"
23-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W2
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—