Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Hardy
Duane Ludwig
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
25-11
Career record
Δ 11 pp
21-15
L4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hardy: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Ludwig: 17 sig / 0 TD
Dan Hardy
Duane Ludwig
39
Sig strikes landed
38
98
Sig strikes attempted
101
48
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
87s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
25-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 0-4
Last 4
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
21-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—