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Prelims1 Middleweight

Jason Miller vs CB Dollaway

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jason Miller
CB Dollaway
64% 36%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
29
23-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 14 sig / 0 TD · Dollaway: 29 sig / 4 TD
Jason Miller
CB Dollaway
23
Sig strikes landed
30
71
Sig strikes attempted
71
45
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
173s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jason Miller

"Mayhem"
23-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L2

CB Dollaway

"The Doberman"
17-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
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W UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—