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Kyle Kingsbury vs Glover Teixeira

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kyle Kingsbury
Glover Teixeira
19% 81%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
30
Age
Δ 2y
33
L1
Current streak
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4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kingsbury: 5 sig / 0 TD · Teixeira: 15 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Kingsbury
Glover Teixeira
45
Sig strikes landed
39
105
Sig strikes attempted
97
59
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kyle Kingsbury

"Kingsbu"
11-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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W UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
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W UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
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Blue corner

Glover Teixeira

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33