Back to UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
Prelims2 Featherweight

Mike Brown vs Daniel Pineda

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir ·MGM Grand Garden Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Mike Brown
Daniel Pineda
54% 46%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
27-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
29-17
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 38 sig / 2 TD · Pineda: 28 sig / 1 TD
Mike Brown
Daniel Pineda
21
Sig strikes landed
29
43
Sig strikes attempted
62
57
Total strikes landed
44
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
210s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Mike Brown

27-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
L UFC 125: Resolution
Blue corner
W2

Daniel Pineda

"The Pit"
29-17 (3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
W UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller