Prelims1
Lightweight
Edson Barboza vs Jamie Varner
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Jamie Varner
60%
40%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
26
Age
Δ 1y
28
W4
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barboza: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Varner: 20 sig / 2 TD
Edson Barboza
Jamie Varner
47
Sig strikes landed
36
123
Sig strikes attempted
93
59
Total strikes landed
47
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
Blue corner
Jamie Varner
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28