Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Dave Herman
25%
75%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
22-15
Career record
Δ 16 pp
22-7
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nelson: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Herman: 3 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Dave Herman
21
Sig strikes landed
45
54
Sig strikes attempted
94
41
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.0
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
157s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L1
Dave Herman
22-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—