Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cain Velasquez
Antonio Silva
70%
30%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
82"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Velasquez: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Silva: 1 sig / 0 TD
Cain Velasquez
Antonio Silva
26
Sig strikes landed
25
53
Sig strikes attempted
54
39
Total strikes landed
39
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
116s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cain Velasquez
14-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
Antonio Silva
"Bigfoot"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33